The rise of autonomous vehicles (AVs), often referred to as self-driving cars, has sparked excitement and debate in equal measure. Promising a future of safer, more efficient transportation, they also raise concerns about job displacement, privacy, and safety. If you listen to many consultants involved in AVs, they promise a new era of transportation, free from the worst aspects of having to drive a car while still traveling in a car. Many critics, on the other hand, say AVs will exacerbate the worst aspects of car ownership. Let’s explore the pros and cons.
The Pros of Autonomous Vehicles
- Improved Safety: Well, maybe. This can go under both pros and cons. Autonomous vehicles have the potential to significantly reduce accidents caused by human error, which accounts for the majority of road accidents. These cars use advanced sensors, cameras, and machine learning algorithms to make quick decisions and avoid collisions. NHTSA is in the process of collecting data on AV safety and describes how driver assistance systems can reduce crashes. California is also collecting data on Cruise and Waymo AVs, and it shows promising results. On the other hand, there are many unknowns regarding AV safety, and we don’t know the consequences of having an entire highway filled with them. We have to think about other road users as well. Pedestrians and cyclists pay attention to driver feedback to negotiate right-of-way. How will they negotiate with an AV? What feedback will it provide? How will a pedestrian know that the AI recognizes him as a pedestrian when hoping it stops before the car hits them?
- Reduced Traffic Congestion: Connected AVs can communicate with each other and the surrounding infrastructure, leading to smoother traffic flow, reduced congestion, and shorter commute times. Connected AVs communicating with a traffic signal, for instance, can change signal timing in order to reduce delay at an intersection. AVs can also adapt to traffic volumes and find the most efficient route.
- Accessibility: Autonomous vehicles could provide newfound mobility to people who are unable to drive due to age, disability, or other factors. This could lead to greater independence and quality of life for many individuals. Of course, the same benefits can be said for transit without having to buy an expensive vehicle.
- Environmental Benefits: By optimizing routes and driving patterns, autonomous vehicles can reduce fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. Electric autonomous vehicles, in particular, could play a significant role in reducing air pollution. This is the major benefit of AVs and electric cars in my opinion. Imagine a place like Los Angeles when more than half of the cars on the road don’t have tailpipe emissions.
The Cons of Autonomous Vehicles
- Job Losses: A major concern surrounding autonomous vehicles is the potential displacement of millions of truck drivers, taxi drivers, and other transportation-related jobs. Preparing for this workforce transition is a significant challenge. Truck drivers are the #1 most common job in a plethora of U.S. states, and a technology that eliminates those jobs quickly becomes a burden to those states. What’s the plan to replace those jobs and retrain those workers?
- Privacy Concerns: Autonomous vehicles gather vast amounts of data about passengers, their destinations, and their behavior. This raises important questions about data security, surveillance, and how this information may be used by companies or governments. Actually, cars are already gathering vast amounts of data about you and selling it to other companies as well as government agencies.
- Ethical and Legal Dilemmas: Autonomous vehicles may face situations where they must make split-second decisions, such as choosing between hitting a pedestrian or a cyclist. Resolving these ethical dilemmas is a complex challenge that requires careful consideration. Also, what is the legal framework to sue an AV manufacturer because its software led to the death of a person?
- Reliability and Safety Concerns: While proponents argue that autonomous vehicles can reduce crashes, skeptics worry about their reliability, especially in unpredictable conditions like heavy rain, snow, or construction zones. Ensuring these vehicles are safe in all situations remains a significant hurdle. Two Cruise vehicles in San Francisco recently malfunctioned and interfered with an ambulance, showing the problem AI has in predicting unusual (and usual) scenarios. I once heard an AI researcher describe self-driving car software as less like playing a chess game and more like a conversation. That is, in chess, there are only a finite number of moves which can easily be predicted. In a conversation, everything and anything is on the table and predicting the outcome of a conversation is much more difficult.
- High Initial Costs: Autonomous vehicle technology is currently expensive, making these cars inaccessible to many consumers. Widespread adoption may depend on the affordability of self-driving technology. That’s not all. The cost of regular cars is also going up, with fewer new cars under $30,000 and almost none at the $20,000 mark. Who will be able to afford AVs? AVs may be unaffordable overkill for consumers when governments could take on the financial burden and expand fixed rail transit, which provides a host of other environmental and land use benefits.
- Sprawl: What happened when driving was encouraged and subsidized during the 2nd half of the 20th century? Sprawl. The further people could drive, the further they could live and work outside of traditional downtowns. This created entire communities designed around the automobile which were impossible to access with any other mode of transportation. AVs may encourage another round of sprawl development as people no longer have to drive their cars, but can sit back, work on their laptop or even sleep while the car drives to its destination. Each new transportation technology shapes the land use around it. Intercity railroads in the early 20th century created compact, dense cities with defined edges. Trolley cars created walkable neighbourhoods. Cars created less dense, more geographically dispersed suburbs. New fixed rail transit systems are redeveloping neighborhoods with transit-oriented development. What type of land use will AVs bring?
Autonomous vehicles hold immense promise, however, they also raise complex challenges related to job displacement, privacy, ethics, and safety. Ultimately, the success of autonomous vehicles will depend on careful regulation, ongoing research and development, and a commitment to addressing the societal issues they bring to light. It’s crucial that we navigate this new world with our eyes wide open to both the possibilities and the pitfalls of AVs.